Marty's Singularity Blog
The Singularity is happening now!
December 13, 2010 at 5:15 am
filed under Computing, General, Singularity
Tagged Computing, Singularity
Last time we saw that the history of the last three hundred years shows us how the advance of science and technology is exponential. Have you ever had the experience of speaking with your parent or grandparent about how much things have changed in their lifetimes? My mother, for example, now 84 years old, was born in 1926. She grew up on a farm in Illinois. They did not have electricity in their house until she was 16 years old. Just fifty years or so before that no one had electricity. Now, of course, essentially everyone, at least in the US and the rest of the developed world, has it. Think about the difference in life between electricity and no electricity – can you even imagine it? One time after a hurricane in south Florida my family and I were without power for five days. What a relief when it came back on.
In his book The Singularity is Near and in an earlier lengthy article on his web site, The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil describes this law that he has named. Rather than attempt to reproduce his arguments I will simply refer you to this article. I strongly urge that you take the time to read it and understand it. Then I would urge that you follow up with the larger exposition in his book The Singularity Is Near. Reading and understanding these will put you in a very strong position to take advantage of the amazing changes coming soon for yourself and your loved ones.
So let’s just look at one example of the Law of Accelerating Returns. Gordon Moore was one of the founders of Intel. Back in the 1960’s he made an observation that has come to be known as Moore’s Law. His observation was that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit was doubling every two years or so. This was happening because semiconductor manufacturers like Intel were learning how to make transistors smaller and smaller as time went on. This “law” has remained in effect until this day.
The implications of Moore’s Law were and are incredible. Integrated circuits with more and more transistors of smaller size have led to amazingly powerful devices like modern microprocessors. This in turn has led to ever smaller and more powerful computers. The increased power of computers has led to advances like computer-aided design which feeds back into architectural advances in integrated circuits, not to mention things like networking and the Internet. Accelerating returns indeed.
Let me illustrate this with a personal anecdote. I have a 13-year-old son now in seventh grade. A few years ago, when he was six or seven, he spent a lot of time with his Game Boy. One day I was telling him about how I had visited the campus of the University of Illinois in 1965. At that time they had a computer called Illiac II that was reportedly the fastest computer in the world. Some friends and I played some games like 3D Tic Tac Toe against this computer. My son asked me how it would compare against his Game Boy. He was impressed when I told him that his Game Boy was probably thousands of times more powerful than the Illiac II.
There is little if any indication that this avalanche of technological progress will cease. Indeed, every indication is that it will not only continue, but continue to accelerate as well. Outside of some global disaster such as an asteroid strike or all-out thermonuclear war one can hardly imagine any set of circumstances that could stop it. With nothing to stop it the exponential explosion will soon be here. Indeed, the whole thesis of this blog is that it is now upon us.
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